Nowcasting epidemics of novel pathogens: lessons from COVID-19.

Epidemic nowcasting broadly refers to assessing the current state by understanding key pathogenic, epidemiologic, clinical and socio-behavioral characteristics of an ongoing outbreak. Its primary objective is to provide situational awareness and inform decisions on control responses. In the event of large-scale sustained emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists need to constantly update their aims and analytics with respect to the rapidly evolving emergence of new questions, data and findings in order to synthesize real-time evidence for policy decisions. In this Perspective, we share our views on the functional aims, rationale, data requirements and challenges of nowcasting at different stages of an epidemic, drawing on the ongoing COVID-19 experience. We highlight how recent advances in the computational and laboratory sciences could be harnessed to complement traditional approaches to enhance the scope, timeliness, reliability and utility of epidemic nowcasting.

The origins of viral infection sleuth.

The events of the past year have underscored the serious and rapid threat that emerging viruses pose to global health. However, much of the rapid progress in understanding and combating SARS-CoV-2 was made possible because of the decades of important groundwork laid from researchers studying other emergent infectious diseases. The 2021 John Dirks Canada Gairdner Global Health award recognizes the contributions of Joseph Sriyal Malik Peiris and Yi Guan toward understanding the origins and options for control of newly emerging infectious disease outbreaks in Asia, notably zoonotic influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Cell's Nicole Neuman corresponded with Yi Guan about his path to becoming a viral infection sleuth and the challenges of understanding emerging pathogens and their origins. Excerpts of their exchange are included here.

History for some or lesson for all? A systematic review and meta-analysis on the immediate and long-term mental health impact of the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The aims of this systematic review and meta-analysis are to examine the prevalence of adverse mental health outcomes, both short-term and long-term, among SARS patients, healthcare workers and the general public of SARS-affected regions, and to examine the protective and risk factors associated with these mental health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of the literature using databases such as Medline, Pubmed, Embase, PsycInfo, Web of Science Core Collection, CNKI, the National Central Library Online Catalog and dissertation databases to identify studies in the English or Chinese language published between January 2003 to May 2020 which reported psychological distress and mental health morbidities among SARS patients, healthcare workers, and the general public in regions with major SARS outbreaks. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 6984 titles. Screening resulted in 80 papers for the review, 35 of which were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence of post-recovery probable or clinician-diagnosed anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among SARS survivors were 19, 20 and 28%, respectively. The prevalence of these outcomes among studies conducted within and beyond 6 months post-discharge was not significantly different. Certain aspects of mental health-related quality of life measures among SARS survivors remained impaired beyond 6 months post-discharge. The prevalence of probable depressive disorder and PTSD among healthcare workers post-SARS were 12 and 11%, respectively. The general public had increased anxiety levels during SARS, but whether there was a clinically significant population-wide mental health impact remained inconclusive. Narrative synthesis revealed occupational exposure to SARS patients and perceived stigmatisation to be risk factors for adverse mental health outcomes among healthcare workers, although causality could not be determined due to the limitations of the studies. CONCLUSIONS: The chronicity of psychiatric morbidities among SARS survivors should alert us to the potential long-term mental health complications of covid-19 patients. Healthcare workers working in high-risk venues should be given adequate mental health support. Stigmatisation against patients and healthcare workers should be explored and addressed. The significant risk of bias and high degree of heterogeneity among included studies limited the certainty of the body of evidence of the review.

Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the COVID-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?

The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about biological, behavioural, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission, burden, and surveillance. Models have been valuable tools during the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks, able to generate possible trajectories of disease burden, evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and estimate key transmission variables. Particularly given the rapid pace of model development, evaluation, and integration with decision making in emergency situations, it is necessary to understand the benefits and pitfalls of transmission models. We review and highlight key aspects of the history of infectious disease dynamic models, the role of rigorous testing and evaluation, the integration with data, and the successful application of models to guide public health. Rather than being an expansive history of infectious disease models, this Review focuses on how the integration of modelling can continue to be advanced through policy and practice in appropriate and conscientious ways to support the current pandemic response.

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919.

Quarantine as a tool of epidemic fight.

Until the 19th century, the factor causing epidemics was not known, and the escape from a place where it occurred as well as isolation of patients was considered to be the only effective way to avoid illness and death. Quarantine in a sense similar to modern times was used in 1377 in Ragusa, today's Dubrovnik, during the plague epidemic. It was the first administratively imposed procedure in the world's history. It was later used in Venice and other rich port cities in the Mediterranean. On the territory of today's Poland, quarantine measures were used by the so-called Mayor of the Air - LukaszDrewno in 1623 during the plague epidemic in Warsaw. The quarantine left its mark on all areas of human activity. It affected all humanity in a way that is underestimated today. Throughout history, it has been described and presented visually. It is omnipresent in the world literature, art and philosophy. However, the isolation and closure of cities, limiting trade, had an impact on the economic balance, and the dilemma between the choice of inhabitants' health and the quality of existence, i.e. their wealth, has been the subject of discussions since the Middle Ages. Since the end of the 19th century, quarantine has lost its practical meaning. The discovery of bacteria and a huge development of medical and social sciences allowed limiting its range. In the 20th century isolation and quarantine no longer had a global range, because the ability to identify factors causing the epidemic, knowledge about the incubation period, carrier, infectiousness, enabled the rational determination of its duration and territorial range. The modern SARS COV 2 pandemic has resulted in a global quarantine on a scale unprecedented for at least three hundred years. The aim of this paper is to present the history of quarantine from its beginning to the present day, including its usefulness as an epidemiological tool.

The Smallpox Epidemics in America in the 1700s and the Role of the Surgeons: Lessons to be Learned During the Global Outbreak of COVID-19.

Today's COVID-19 pandemic offers many similarities with previous pandemics hitting our country. In particular, the smallpox epidemics during the 1700s threatened the lives of multitudes and created panic and fear in the society, similar to the situation caused by the coronavirus. Remedies that were instituted, especially inoculations, were met with opposition and even violence when first introduced. The newspapers were filled with headlines reflecting the disputes. There was a "six feet rule" during the smallpox epidemics, although it had a different meaning than today. Politicians and other leaders of the society were engaged in the war against the infection. Boston became involved in the fight against the smallpox by Dr. Zabdiel Boylston's and Rev. Cotton Mather's introduction of inoculations. When George Washington realized the benefits of the procedure and ordered mass inoculations of the Continental Army, it became an important factor in winning not only the fight against smallpox but the Revolutionary War as well. Looking back at history, realizing that we have survived previous outbreaks of devastating diseases, can provide hope during the current pandemic.

Resilience, relevance, remembering: history in the time of coronavirus.

In a time of unprecedented and rapid change, what are the roles of librarians and archivists in documenting the course of a pandemic?

[COVID-19. History repeats itself and we keep stumbling on the same stone]. / COVID-19. La historia se repite y seguimos tropezando con la misma piedra.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a mismatch in all health systems. Most countries had forgotten how to behave in the face of such an epidemic without adequate resources. We need to take stock of everything that has happened, instruct the population and generate a new knowledge that allows us to face new epidemics.

Occupational health responses to COVID-19: What lessons can we learn from SARS?

On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) received reports of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. The agent responsible was subsequently identified as a coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2. The WHO declared this disease as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern at the end of January 2020. This event evoked a sense of déjà vu, as it has many similarities to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) of 2002-2003. Both illnesses were caused by a zoonotic novel coronavirus, both originated during winter in China and both spread rapidly all over the world. However, the case-fatality rate of SARS (9.6%) is higher than that of COVID-19 (<4%). Another zoonotic novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV, was responsible for the Middle East respiratory syndrome, which had a case-fatality rate of 34%. Our experiences in coping with the previous coronavirus outbreaks have better equipped us to face the challenges posed by COVID-19, especially in the health care setting. Among the insights gained from the past outbreaks were: outbreaks caused by viruses are hazardous to healthcare workers; the impact of the disease extends beyond the infection; general principles of prevention and control are effective in containing the disease; the disease poses both a public health as well as an occupational health threat; and emerging infectious diseases pose a continuing threat to the world. Given the perspectives gained and lessons learnt from these past events, we should be better prepared to face the current COVID-19 outbreak.

How to Surge to Face the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak: Lessons Learned From Lombardy, Italy.

Italy is fighting against one of the worst medical emergency since the 1918 Spanish Flu. Pressure on the hospitals is tremendous. As for official data on March 14th: 8372 admitted in hospitals, 1518 in intensive care units, 1441 deaths (175 more than the day before). Unfortunately, hospitals are not prepared: even where a plan for massive influx of patients is present, it usually focuses on sudden onset disaster trauma victims (the most probable case scenario), and it has not been tested, validated, or propagated to the staff. Despite this, the All Hazards Approach for management of major incidents and disasters is still valid and the "4S" theory (staff, stuff, structure, systems) for surge capacity can be guidance to respond to this disaster.